California Still in Debilitating Drought

We are late in the California rainy season. In Northern and Central California rivers are filling to their banks, and reservoirs are swelling. The reason is rain, rain and more rain. 

Up the Sierra Nevada mountain range, the snowpack is near normal, which means rivers will continue to flow strong and refresh the reservoirs as snowmelt steps in to replace the lucre of falling precip. Nine months ago, after three years of significantly below normal precipitation, many reservoirs were at record or near-record lows; the U. S. Government said 99.9 percent of the Golden State was in drought. Now with many reservoirs filling up and spillways here and there opened to create capacity for snowmelt or future rains, Uncle Sam says 98.6 percent of the state is still in drought.

Look see at the Drought Monitor put out by USDA, NOAA and the Department of Commerce (if a rating system has three government agencies and all their Schedule C appointees, life-tenured bureaucrats and scientists behind it has gotta be really, really good).

The Los Angeles Times seems is a bit quicker on the uptake.

California's largest reservoir filling too fast thanks to El Nino, must release more water

The El Niño-fueled storms that have swept through Northern California in recent weeks have swelled some of the state’s largest reservoirs to encouraging levels even as the state's drought persists.

One of the biggest beneficiaries has been Lake Shasta, a keystone reservoir of the Central Valley project, which serves California growers.
To make room in Shasta for water from last weekend’s storms, the Federal Bureau of Reclamation ramped up releases from 5,000 cubic feet per second to 20,000 cubic feet per second on March 18. It was the first time since 2011 that the bureau released water into the upper Sacramento River at such a rapid rate, said spokesman Shane Hunt.

Officials began slowing the releases again on Wednesday, Hunt said. The rate is expected to return to around 5,000 cubic feet per second by Monday. 

“We never got to the point where the increased releases drew the lake down at all,” Hunt said. “We just slowed how fast we were gaining.”
Lake Shasta, he added, is “still gaining storage and will continue to do so.”

Lake Shasta is the most important water resource in the state.

Shasta Division consists of a pair of large dams on the Sacramento River north of the city of Redding.^[4] The Shasta Dam is the primary water storage and power generating facility of the CVP. It impounds the Sacramento River to form Shasta Lake, which can store over 4,500,000 acre feet (5,600,000 dam³) of water, and can generate 680 MW of power.^[5][6]Shasta Dam functions to regulate the flow of the Sacramento River so that downstream diversion dams and canals can capture the flow of the river more efficiently, and to prevent flooding in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta where many water pump facilities for San Joaquin Valley aqueducts are located.^[4] The Keswick Dam functions as an afterbay (regulating reservoir) for the Shasta Dam, also generating power.^[7][8] 

The Sacramento Canals Division of the CVP takes water from the Sacramento River much farther downstream of the Shasta and Keswick Dams. Diversion dams, pumping plants, and aqueducts provide municipal water supply as well as irrigation of about 98,000 acres (4,000,000 dam²).^[9] The Red Bluff Diversion Dam diverts part of the Sacramento River^[10]into the 110-mile (180 km) Tehama-Colusa Canal, the 21-mile (34 km) Corning Canal and a small reservoir formed by Funks Dam.^[11] Five pump plants take water from the canal and feed it to the Colusa County water distribution grid.^[9]

Here is the up-to-date water storage graph for Lake Shasta. Notice last week's kink caused by the Bureau of Reclamation spillway openings. 

Lake Shasta is filled to 87 percent of capacity, 109 percent of normal for this day of the year, and 100 percent of the average seasonal peak. Its 3,944,441 stored acre feet are about 50 percent more than the same day last year, more than double the storage during the debilitating 1976-1977 drought, and just a few ticks below the drought busting season of 1977-1978. Shasta would be more than 90 percent full if the spillways had not opened.

Following is the Lake Shasta picture for the last month in numbers. RES ELE is the reservoir elevation (water level), STORAGE is the water stored in acre feet, RES CHG, is the daily change in water stored, OUTFLOW is the water outflow, INFLOW is the water inflow, EVAP is water lost to evaporation, PPT INC is daily precipitation and RAIN is precipitation for the rain season to date. Accumulated rainfall for the season is 59.81 inches. That's five feet -- a lot of water.

SHASTA DAM (USBR) (SHA)Elevation: 1067' · SACRAMENTO R basin · Operator: US Bureau of ReclamationProvisional data, subject to change. Query executed Friday at 14:20:52   

Note: Reservoir Flows are daily averages.

Date	RES ELE		STORAGE		RES CHG		TOC STO		ABV TOC		OUTFLOW		INFLOW		EVAP		FNF		RIV REL		PPT INC		RAIN		SPILL		DIS PWR
	FEET		AF		AF		AF		AF		CFS		CFS		CFS		CFS		CFS		INCHES		INCHES		CFS		CFS
02/25/2016	994.89		2718821		13525		3922775		-1203954		2725		9588		44		8261		0		0.00		42.42		0		2725
02/26/2016	995.47		2731133		12312		3938718		-1207585		3106		9388		75		8124		0		0.00		42.42		0		3106
02/27/2016	996.09		2744318		13185		3954565		-1210247		2704		9382		31		8270		0		0.13		42.55		0		2704
02/28/2016	996.74		2758203		13885		3969538		-1211335		2653		9703		50		7933		0		0.09		42.64		0		2653
02/29/2016	997.11		2766120		7917		3990848		-1224728		3002		7050		57		8102		0		0.00		42.64		0		3002
03/01/2016	997.49		2774282		8162		4013234		-1238952		2381		6521		25		6633		0		0.00		42.64		0		2381
03/02/2016	998.01		2785453		11171		4031495		-1246042		2353		8074		89		7380		0		0.00		42.64		0		2353
03/03/2016	998.81		2802729		17276		4037412		-1234683		1546		10345		89		10927		0		0.00		42.64		0		1546
03/04/2016	999.62		2820293		17564		4054216		-1227720		2223		11110		32		8974		0		0.08		42.72		0		2223
03/05/2016	1002.51		2883477		63184		4005238		-1115764		2079		33940		6		36317		0		1.99		44.71		0		2079
03/06/2016	1006.46		2971399		87922		3927121		-949947		1179		45513		7		53629		0		1.78		46.49		0		1179
03/07/2016	1009.52		3040780		69381		3872742		-831942		2407		37413		27		36143		0		1.13		47.62		0		2407
03/08/2016	1011.73		3091582		50802		3848929		-757347		975		26689		102		25340		0		0.00		47.62		0		975
03/09/2016	1013.53		3133398		41816		3837974		-704576		1198		22287		7		22005		0		0.54		48.16		0		1198
03/10/2016	1016.72		3208462		75064		3781911		-573449		833		38684		7		40417		0		1.10		49.26		0		833
03/11/2016	1021.02		3311511		103049		3688492		-376982		560		52520		7		52760		0		2.67		51.93		0		560
03/12/2016	1025.86		3429911		118400		3577439		-147528		401		60093		0		59991		0		1.46		53.39		0		401
03/13/2016	1031.92		3582246		152335		3423444		158802		551		77360		8		79428		0		2.56		55.95		0		551
03/14/2016	1036.82		3708819		126573		3306574		402246		445		64273		15		63988		0		2.10		58.05		0		445
03/15/2016	1040.02		3793119		84300		3252100		541019		1262		43965		202		44204		0		0.02		58.07		0		1262
03/16/2016	1042.17		3850207		57088		3252100		598107		1882		30671		8		29955		0		0.00		58.07		2		1880
03/17/2016	1043.84		3894951		44744		3252100		642851		3097		25726		71		26882		0		0.00		58.07		0		3097
03/18/2016	1044.15		3903296		8345		3254664		651196		17515		21841		119		21177		0		0.00		58.07		0		17515
03/19/2016	1044.25		3905994		2698		3280451		632005		17239		18734		135		17929		0		0.00		58.07		0		17239
03/20/2016	1044.47		3911930		5936		3308446		610543		16888		19881		0		19791		0		0.01		58.08		0		16888
03/21/2016	1044.90		3923534		11604		3328012		595522		17088		22946		8		23466		0		0.80		58.88		0		17088
03/22/2016	1045.18		3931113		7579		3358086		573027		17034		21214		359		21305		0		0.90		59.78		0		17034
03/23/2016	1045.46		3938705		7592		3405022		533684		14719		18659		112		18841		0		0.03		59.81		0		14719
03/24/2016	1045.69		3944941		6236		3447356		497584		13787		16987		56		16885		0		0.00		59.81		0		13787
03/25/2016	--		--		--		--		--		--		--		--		--		--		--		--		--		--

Later | Latest

Warning! This data is preliminary and subject to revision.

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Precipitation at Mount Shasta since Christmas is well above average.

The period total of 27.6 inches is 44.4 percent above the normal.

Lake Oroville is the second largest reservoir in California. Its story and rapid recovery are similar to Lake Shasta's. Oroville is at 84 percent of total capacity, 113 percent of its daily average and 100 percent of its average yearly peak. 

Even smaller Sierra Nevada reservoirs like San Pedro (80 percent of normal, up from 70 percent on March 1, 59 percent on February 1, and 53 percent on January 1) that remain below normal, are sharply above last year's level and the historic 1976-77 lows, and are filling at a rates should bump up against -- and possibly exceed -- normal by the end of the wet season.

These reservoirs will continue to fill because they will be recharged by the melting of the ample snowpack.

Looking at smaller urban reservoirs in Northern California that supply city and suburban water systems, the news is excellent as well.

For example, in the Marin Municipal Water District, Marin County, north of San Francisco, the reservoirs are full.

Reservoir Storage (total capacity 79,566 acre-feet)

Alpine, Bon Tempe, Kent, Lagunitas, Nicasio, Phoenix, & Soulajule Reservoirs	Acre- Feet3	% of Capacity
Storage as of 3/24/2016	79,566	100.00%
Storage for this date last year	76,020	95.54%
Average storage for this date	72,823	91.53%

Current storage (79,566 AF) is 109.25% of the average storage (72,823 AF) for this date.

The Sonoma County Water Agency reports neighboring Sonoma County's reservoir water levels are above water supply targets. As indicated by the downward kinks in the below graphs, Sonoma water is being released to reserve capacity for flood control.




South of San Francisco, the data for the Santa Clara Water District are more difficult to interpret, but after digging around, we find the news is positive all around as well. Four out of the eleven reservoirs are full and a fifth, Coyote now 89.8 percent. The district's largest reservoir, Anderson, is reportedly only 57.3 percent full based on its 90,373 acre feet capacity, but that is not actually so.

Here is the scoop on Anderson Reservoir.

C1: Anderson Dam Seismic Retrofit

Anderson Reservoir is currently limited to 68 percent of its capacity due to seismic concerns, costing Santa Clara County valuable drinking water resources. This project covers earthquake retrofitting of Anderson Dam to improve reliability and safety, and returns the reservoir to its original storage capacity. Anderson Dam creates the county’s largest surface water reservoir—Anderson Reservoir—which stores local rainfall runoff and imported water from the Central Valley Project. The reservoir is an important water source for treatment plants and the recharge of the groundwater basin. Besides restoring drinking water supplies, the upgrade also supports compliance with environmental regulations. The district’s regular reservoir releases ensure that downstream habitat has healthy flows and temperatures to sustain wildlife. A breach of Anderson Dam at full capacity could have catastrophic consequences, including inundation of surrounding land more than 30 miles northwest to San Francisco Bay, and more than 40 miles southeast to Monterey Bay.

The current capacity is actually 61,810 acre feet, meaning Anderson Reservoir is 83.3 percent full and will likely fill up to its practical capacity in April. Total storage for all Santa Clara reservoirs is then about 80 percent of capacity (instead of 65.3 percent).

When reservoir storages get up to 200 percent we will check back to see if Club Fed has called off the Drought Monitor. Cheers.