What a Difference a Year Makes

Last year we played golf in Bozeman on February 5. That's not going to happen in this supremely normal winter of 2015-16.

Web Cam view from the clubhouse, across the putting green to the cottonwoods at the first tee, Cottonwood Hills Golf Course, Bozeman, Montana, January 31, 2016, 5:00 pm MST.

It Never Rains in California

Except when it does, of course.

It has been raining. Drought in large portions of California is endangered.

But going by the U.S. government Drought Monitor 100 percent of California remains in drought. Soaking rains and heavy snows, according to the government, have done essentially nothing to attenuate the extent or even the severity of drought.

Compared to the January 12 Monitor (left hand map) only a tiny portion of California is experiencing less severe drought this week (see the extreme northwest corner of the January 19 map on the right). Yet the news on the ground has been nothing but good.

The following graph depicts water storage at Lake Shasta (a good benchmark because it is the largest reservoir in the state) in northern California. The January improvement is dramatic.

Thoughts and Notes About a California Drought

California Governor Jerry Brown during a message to the California

 state legislature on Jan. 6, 1977,  "We are going to have to learn to

 share  -- north and south -- all of us together." "It is the only way 

we can solve this problem."

Steinbeck wrote it as fiction but he spoke the truth in "East of Eden."

“And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.”

California is experiencing its most severe drought of my lifetime, though the drought is only modestly worse than the 1976-77 drought that intersected with my three year residence in California. When I moved to California in the fall of 1975 and first saw the indigenous flora it was brown, and it remained brown for the rest of the year and throughout 1976, and then through the summer and early fall of 1977. The dawning of the "Little Ice Age" was ascendant in the minds of many climatologists of the time, and the theory of global cooling was cited as possible cause. 

There was a place on Stanford campus called Lake Laguanita. To my repeated observation it contained nary a liquid drop. So for two solid years that is what I thought California was -- dry and brown. And in a weird way it made sense that the good citizens of the Golden State elected young, austere Jerry Brown as governor. So now, almost forty years later California elected elderly, austere Jerry Brown. The citizenry are nothing if not consistent. They believe more in symbolism than solutions. Coincidental this is not.

Low water behind the Lake Shasta dam, March 2, 1977.

I recall in the 1976-77 timeframe driving from the San Francisco Bay Area, past Lake Shasta on a trip up to Seattle. I looked down and was appalled by how far the reservoir level had dropped from its peak capacity. I saw boats and docks and marinas marooned high and dry. The water supply was shriveling up. The life it supported would surely waste away.

There will always be drought somewhere -- most dramatically in semi-arid climates that depend on short seasonal surges of rain and snow to replenish water supplies. In these locales if they do not get their water in a three or four month window, there's no making it up later on. 

Drought has myriad causes and periodicities, though that is not the way Dear President sees it. We have zero evidence that the man ever stuck his noggin inside a chemistry, physics, biology or meteorology lecture hall or worked at a bench in a scientific lab. He knows not the difference between the scientific and Socratic methods. He pontificates nevertheless.

Look Up!

That is up the valley from our front porch. You never know what you might see! Click to enlarge.

Landing here.

See George Washington's nose to the right.

Visiting The Old Homestead

We wrote last summer about a second cousin in Sweden, Roland Classon. A "genealogy fiend" I called him. Yesterday Roland wrote on his genealogy blog about my sister's and daughter's July visit, which the rest of my family took advantage of to vacation in Seattle, using my sister's house as home base. Roland lives in Helsingborg, located at the narrowest part of the Oresund strait, across from Denmark.

For reference, here is a map locating Helsingborg and Aseda, the rural community where more than a century later the family homestead still stands nearby.

Google Maps screenshot of routes between Helsingborg and Aseda, Sweden.

We repeat Roland's post in the following, verbatim -- translated into English of course. His references to Kuttaboda are to the rural crossroads of our ancestral home located about five miles east of Aseda (population 6,336) proper.

Avalanche Season Is Here

While back East people enjoyed unseasonably warm temperatures through December that were more amenable to playing frisbee or golf than sledding or skiing, we had plenty of early season snow, plus temperatures that averaged a bit below normal since November 1. 

Bridger Bowl Snow Report, Christmas Eve, 2015

The ski areas are going strong. Just fifteen miles north of us, Mother Nature dumped one hundred and nine inches of snow at the community sponsored Bridger Bowl skiing area through Christmas Eve. Powder and packed powder were the norm. A fresh coat of snow was falling almost every day.

Nearby to our south, the Big Sky ski resort reported a 40 to 60 inch snow base and "fantastic skiing and riding." Big Sky invites "C’mon out and enjoy the biggest skiing in America! We’re sure you’ll be stoked you did!"

The Bozeman Chronicle reported on the early season opening of the ski season.

Santa Claus came early and filled Bridger Bowl with 2 feet of smoky snow this week, appeasing the valley’s powder hounds. From the ski hill’s parking lot it was apparent that Bozeman had been stricken with the powder flu — 2,305 skied Thursday.

Cooper Krause, 26, an engineer for Morrison-Maierle, had to go in to work this morning but was still on the slopes by noon, enjoying the fresh snow.

“It’s pretty good,” Krause said as he pushed off with a friend at the top of the Sunnyside Lift. 

The Dec. 11 opening day at Bridger Bowl was a week later than last year. But the weather’s been cooperating since and 13,265 people have visited in the first week.

“This time of year it’s always a touchy point waiting for the right storms to really kick things off,” said Doug Wales, Bridger Bowl’s director of marketing. “Some years you start fat and happy.”

*****

Wales was a bit skeptical about the preseason forecasts for a warm, dry El Niño year in the Rocky Mountains. 

“It’s setting up well now and right when we need it for the holidays,” Wales said. 

“The big challenge is getting the snow, and we’re on our way. Obviously its got to keep up and we’ll continue to make snow as much as we can early on,” he said. “But we’re excited about where we are today.”

Here is a video of the skiing at Bridger Bowl earlier this week.

And Then The Rains Came

The rains are coming in a deluge to California this week. Here is a screenshot of the Doppler radar effective 5:00 am PST today.

Doppler radar, 1/1/2016, 5:00 PST. Source: Weather.com.

Wave after wave of moisture is headed in off the Pacific Ocean. 

The National Weather Service issued this statement for the Sacramento area.

• Issued by The National Weather Service

  Sacramento, CA

  3:37pm PST, Mon Jan 4
... UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK...
.IMPACTS... *SLICK ROADS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW.
*TRAVEL DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500 FEET.
THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
*POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR DEBRIS FLOWS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE... *HIGH FOR UNSETTLED PATTERN.
*MEDIUM FOR EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF EACH SYSTEM.
*MEDIUM FOR LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TIMING AND STRENGTH... *TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY *A STRONGER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IMPACTING TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. *HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM 4500 FEET AND ABOVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
*WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY *LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 3500 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. *AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
*FRIDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK FROM WET WEATHER.
*WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
.WEATHER SUMMARY... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL STORMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FIRST WAVE BROUGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN TONIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN TO THE VALLEY.
A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLDER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. VALLEY RAIN MAY IMPACT COMMUTE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH.

Here is what Accuweather.com is reporting.

Train of storms to drench California, southwestern US as El Nino drives the pattern

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

January 5, 2016; 7:17 AM ET

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A series of storms will bring welcome rainfall across California and other portions of the southwestern United States this week.

The track of these storms is fueled by El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

"The above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, tends to strengthen the storm track into the West Coast and occasionally California during the winter," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Train of Storms in the West

While a parade of storms slammed into the northwestern United States during November and December, the southwestern U.S. will receive days of precipitation this week.

"The pattern in the West will remain quite active through the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde said.

While rainfall will be measured in inches from California and into parts of Arizona, these storms will not erase the drought across the Southwest.

Snow will fall across the mountains which will be beneficial for filling lakes and rivers during the spring and summer months. Snowfall will be measured in feet across the Sierra Nevada. Snow this week could cause travel problems near Donner Pass.

The next few storms to roll ashore will be from Wednesday into Friday and will be progressively stronger and bring heavier rainfall and mountain snow across all of California and into Arizona and New Mexico.

"While most of the rain and snow will fall at moderate rates with minimal impact, there will be heavier rain later Tuesday into Tuesday night which could cause some flooding in some of the hills surrounding Los Angeles," Rinde said.

According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel, "The storms during the second half of the week have the potential to unload 2-3 feet of snow on the mountains and ski resorts of Southern California."

In addition to wintry travel problems, enough rain will fall to raise the risk of sporadic urban flooding and a small number of mudslides, especially in burn scar areas from wildfires.

The mainstream media will tell you simplistically that this will not put an end to the California drought. While technically true, the string of storms will put a meaningful and welcome dent into the drought and take the edge off the crisis. And four or five weeks of this kind of weather, which has been known to happen when previous coastal droughts have broken, will in fact put an end to the drought. We have identified information sources. We will be watching and reporting because we are interested and hope that you will be too.

Found Again!

Readers of this blog know I have posted a number of times on the pre baby boom history of my hometown of Morton Grove, Illinois, and pipe up every now and again about goings on in or near my family's current residence of Bozeman, Montana. As these municipalities are geographically separated by the better part of a mile vertically and some 1,300 miles horizontally, and their populations are modest (Bozeman 37,280 and Morton Grove 23,270 in the last decennial census) you would not expect there would  be a whole lot of intersection between the two populations.

But I received an email at my blog address the other day titled "Small World" (you can get to my email address by clicking through the "View my full profile link" on the right side of this page). The sender, who we shall refer to as Mr. Moody, wrote as follows,

Hi Grady:

I recently happened upon your Blog.  I am also from Morton Grove, and vaguely remember you from early childhood.  I lived on 9000 block of Moody Street,  went to Park View, then Niles West (Class of 76), and then on to Ann Arbor, Berkeley and beyond.  You were about 4-5 years ahead of me if my recollection is correct.

I relocated here (Bozeman) in 2000 in an effort to escape the city and the practice of law (and to flyfish, ski, hike, etc.)

It would be good to meet you sometime.  Keep up the Blog!

Mr. Moody

### West Something or Other St

Bozeman, MT 59715

(406) ###-####

We love making new friends, discovering long lost or previously unknown relatives, and assisting people seeking our help to connect with others whom they surmise we might be able to find or hone in on based on writings in our blog (though the story had a bittersweet ending, we were able to help a man adopted as an infant track down his birth mother). 

My life story seems to parallel (I attended rival schools in Madison and Palo Alto) my Bozeman neighbor more than a little bit. I responded.


Mr. Moody,

Great to hear from you!

Your name sounds familiar, like I met you playing golf here or something like that. Your name is not ringing a bell from back in the day.

We are ... just east of town.

I presume you've read my Morton Grove posts. If not, they are tagged Morton Grove in the right hand column of my blog.

Caddied for nine years at Glen View Club, got the caddie scholarship, went to U Wisc. then Stanford and lived and worked in the DC area for 34 years before retiring and moving to Bozeman.

Yes I graduated Niles West 1971 after attending Park View all the way through. Lived on the corner of Austin and Davis at 9101 N. Austin. I probably walked by your house on the way to or from Park View a thousand times.

I have accumulated a lot of research on the Poehlmann Bros. greenhouse operation that, depending on which side of Moody you lived on, would have been in your backyard (see greenhouses in image below). I'll get it written up sometime in the next couple of months.

Morton Grove, aerial view, 1939, courtesy USGS>

I have a question. The Bozeman Parks website says Southside isn't open for skating yet, Is that right? I promised to take my kids skating.

Until later.

Cheers,

Grady

The Poehlmann Bros. Greenhouses (shuttered but not yet taken down in this 1939 view) are the row upon row of structures between Moody and the (North Branch of the Chicago) river in the above right photo. Our correspondent grew up in a home on Moody Avenue between Lake Street and Davis Street. We actually blogged once about the route I walked in my childhood to Park View School down his block of Moody, and another time wrote on the block north of Mr. Moody's childhood home that has been taken back by nature. I learned how to ice skate in Harrer Park and attended Park View School grades K through 8, located since the 1950s where the Poehlman brothers once grew roses, carnations, mums, lilies, and other flowers and greenery for the wholesale florist market. 

I passed by Mr. Moody's childhood home the day Kennedy was shot.

My correspondent wrote back.

Grady:

Great to hear from you, too.  They still seem to be working on the ice each morning, but it does not appear to be open yet.  It should be open any day now.

Please feel free to give me a call (or knock on the door) when you head to South Side Park – my house faces the north side of the Park.

Mr. Moody

Just how small of a world is it?

Our daughter Blake skating at South Side Park in Bozeman, February 2014. Our correspondent's home -- quite literally -- is in the background. 

With below normal temperatures through most of December, it most certainly has been cold enough, long enough to lay the ice at South Side. We suspect some sort of a labor issue is responsible for the delay. When we get around to lacing our skates up, we will be sure to knock at Mr. Moody's door and say "Hi."

Icicles in the Hair

Ah, icicles in the hair -- nothing like January in Montana!
Posted by Grady Foster on Friday, January 1, 2016