Ski Season Is Here (Avalanche Season Too)

It's here, it's now and it's real. After a mostly fair and unseasonably warm November, to the delight of local snowshoe trekkers, cross country and alpine skiers, ice climbers and snowmobile enthusiasts, winter has descended onto us hard and fast in the weeks following Thanksgiving. 

The local ski area, Bridger Bowl, opened to excited crowds Friday. The skiing is delightful, as attested to by the opening day video.



Here are today's conditions.

Snow

	Bridger	Alpine
New	0"	0"
24-Hour	10"	10"
Settled Base	n/a	31"
Seasonal Snowfall (since Nov 1)	47"	47"

Snow Conditions

Water Content	–
Primary Surface	Powder
Secondary Surface	Packed Powder

Intrepid extreme skiers are hiking to The Ridge (search beacon transponders and shovels required) from where they can shoot down rocky chutes and tree-lined seams.

Webcam screenshot capture on the Ridge above Bridger Bowl, elevation 8,500 feet, December 11, 2016.

As the snow piles up, avalanche dangers also advance.

The Gallitan National Forest Avalanche Center has issued it's first set of warnings, blanketing close to 5,000 square miles.

Yesterday we had our first serious avalanche incident of the season.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion: 

Bridger Range   Madison Range   Gallatin Range
Lionhead area near West Yellowstone   Cooke City 

Yesterday in the Northern Madison Range, a snowmobiler was caught and fully buried in an avalanche in the second Yellowmule on Buck Ridge. He was located with an avalanche beacon by his partners and was uncovered with minimal injuries for a fortunate outcome. This event highlights the importance of being prepared with the right gear and the right partners. The avalanche likely broke on a layer of weak sugary snow above an ice crust on the ground (photo) and was on a heavily wind loaded slope.

Snowfall totals since Thursday equal 1” of snow water equivalent (SWE) throughout our advisory area with over 1.5” of SWE in the southern ranges. Strong winds yesterday transported new snow into fresh drifts near ridgelines and increased the stress on buried weak layers (video). Wind slabs and new snow slabs may rest over weak snow that formed on the surface during last week’s cold temperatures, and could be easy to trigger today. Avoid steep terrain if you see fresh wind slabs or cracking and collapsing in the new snow.

New snow and wind-loading also added weight to a layer of weak facets near the ground (video, video, video). Ski patrols triggered avalanches on this layer over the last week (photo, photo); and avalanches failed on this layer in the backcountry, including the one that caught and buried a snowmobiler yesterday on Buck Ridge. Wind loaded slopes will be the most likely place to trigger an avalanche on this layer, but avalanches are also possible on this layer on non-wind loaded slopes. Choose terrain with lower consequences and dig a hole to look for this layer before committing to steep terrain.
Recent snow and strong winds create unstable conditions today and the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE.

Here is the Avalanche Center's December 10 video documenting forces that lead to avalanche.

In this blog we have documented again, and again, and again, and again the deadly impacts of avalanche. 

Please have fun and be careful out there. 

Update 12/11/16:

Not eight hours after posting this the Avalanche Center tweeted:

A skier was killed in an avalanche on Henderson Mountain outside Cooke City today. We will have more information the the coming days.

— GNF Avalanche Center (@AvalancheGuys) December 12, 2016

Damn.

Update 12/12/16:

Some more details reported today.

Officials have identified the skier who died Sunday afternoon in an avalanche north of Cooke City.
Christopher Peterson, 55, of Ketchum, Idaho, was killed after being buried in an avalanche on the north slope of Henderson Mountain.
The avalanche was reported to be 6 feet deep and 100 feet wide, according to the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

Peterson, who was skiing with six others, was completely buried and located at the base of a tree with a transceiver by members of his party, the Avalanche Center said in a statement posted to Facebook.
They dug Peterson up within 15 to 20 minutes, but could not resuscitate him with CPR. When rescuers arrived, they took over and tried an AED to revive Peterson, but he was pronounced dead.
Another skier was partially buried but wasn’t hurt.

Here is Avalanche Center video from the scene with the complete story.



And this finding from the Avalanche Center:

AVALANCHE FATALITY

Yesterday, Eric and I investigated the avalanche that killed a skier on Henderson Mountain outside Cooke City. The skier was in a party of 5 and his descent was the 7th track on the slope when it avalanched. He was carried into the trees and buried under 5’ of snow. Another person was buried to his waist, uninjured, as he stood in the runout zone. The victim was found with avalanche transceivers and dug up in 15-20 minutes. CPR was initiated, but unsuccessful as trauma was a likely factor in his death. The slope was only 250 vertical feet, but steep, averaging 40 degrees. The crown was 3’ deep and the path was 150’ wide. The avalanche broke on a layer of weak, sugary facets sitting on an ice crust 1’ above the ground. 

Our deepest sympathy goes out to his family and friends and his Ketchum, Idaho community.

It Never Rains in California

Except when it does, of course.

It has been raining. Drought in large portions of California is endangered.

But going by the U.S. government Drought Monitor 100 percent of California remains in drought. Soaking rains and heavy snows, according to the government, have done essentially nothing to attenuate the extent or even the severity of drought.

Compared to the January 12 Monitor (left hand map) only a tiny portion of California is experiencing less severe drought this week (see the extreme northwest corner of the January 19 map on the right). Yet the news on the ground has been nothing but good.

The following graph depicts water storage at Lake Shasta (a good benchmark because it is the largest reservoir in the state) in northern California. The January improvement is dramatic.

Thoughts and Notes About a California Drought

California Governor Jerry Brown during a message to the California

 state legislature on Jan. 6, 1977,  "We are going to have to learn to

 share  -- north and south -- all of us together." "It is the only way 

we can solve this problem."

Steinbeck wrote it as fiction but he spoke the truth in "East of Eden."

“And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.”

California is experiencing its most severe drought of my lifetime, though the drought is only modestly worse than the 1976-77 drought that intersected with my three year residence in California. When I moved to California in the fall of 1975 and first saw the indigenous flora it was brown, and it remained brown for the rest of the year and throughout 1976, and then through the summer and early fall of 1977. The dawning of the "Little Ice Age" was ascendant in the minds of many climatologists of the time, and the theory of global cooling was cited as possible cause. 

There was a place on Stanford campus called Lake Laguanita. To my repeated observation it contained nary a liquid drop. So for two solid years that is what I thought California was -- dry and brown. And in a weird way it made sense that the good citizens of the Golden State elected young, austere Jerry Brown as governor. So now, almost forty years later California elected elderly, austere Jerry Brown. The citizenry are nothing if not consistent. They believe more in symbolism than solutions. Coincidental this is not.

Low water behind the Lake Shasta dam, March 2, 1977.

I recall in the 1976-77 timeframe driving from the San Francisco Bay Area, past Lake Shasta on a trip up to Seattle. I looked down and was appalled by how far the reservoir level had dropped from its peak capacity. I saw boats and docks and marinas marooned high and dry. The water supply was shriveling up. The life it supported would surely waste away.

There will always be drought somewhere -- most dramatically in semi-arid climates that depend on short seasonal surges of rain and snow to replenish water supplies. In these locales if they do not get their water in a three or four month window, there's no making it up later on. 

Drought has myriad causes and periodicities, though that is not the way Dear President sees it. We have zero evidence that the man ever stuck his noggin inside a chemistry, physics, biology or meteorology lecture hall or worked at a bench in a scientific lab. He knows not the difference between the scientific and Socratic methods. He pontificates nevertheless.

And Then The Rains Came

The rains are coming in a deluge to California this week. Here is a screenshot of the Doppler radar effective 5:00 am PST today.

Doppler radar, 1/1/2016, 5:00 PST. Source: Weather.com.

Wave after wave of moisture is headed in off the Pacific Ocean. 

The National Weather Service issued this statement for the Sacramento area.

• Issued by The National Weather Service

  Sacramento, CA

  3:37pm PST, Mon Jan 4
... UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK...
.IMPACTS... *SLICK ROADS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW.
*TRAVEL DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500 FEET.
THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
*POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR DEBRIS FLOWS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE... *HIGH FOR UNSETTLED PATTERN.
*MEDIUM FOR EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF EACH SYSTEM.
*MEDIUM FOR LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TIMING AND STRENGTH... *TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY *A STRONGER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IMPACTING TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. *HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM 4500 FEET AND ABOVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
*WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY *LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 3500 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. *AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
*FRIDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK FROM WET WEATHER.
*WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
.WEATHER SUMMARY... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL STORMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FIRST WAVE BROUGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN TONIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN TO THE VALLEY.
A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLDER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. VALLEY RAIN MAY IMPACT COMMUTE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH.

Here is what Accuweather.com is reporting.

Train of storms to drench California, southwestern US as El Nino drives the pattern

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

January 5, 2016; 7:17 AM ET

Share|

A series of storms will bring welcome rainfall across California and other portions of the southwestern United States this week.

The track of these storms is fueled by El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

"The above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, tends to strengthen the storm track into the West Coast and occasionally California during the winter," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Train of Storms in the West

While a parade of storms slammed into the northwestern United States during November and December, the southwestern U.S. will receive days of precipitation this week.

"The pattern in the West will remain quite active through the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde said.

While rainfall will be measured in inches from California and into parts of Arizona, these storms will not erase the drought across the Southwest.

Snow will fall across the mountains which will be beneficial for filling lakes and rivers during the spring and summer months. Snowfall will be measured in feet across the Sierra Nevada. Snow this week could cause travel problems near Donner Pass.

The next few storms to roll ashore will be from Wednesday into Friday and will be progressively stronger and bring heavier rainfall and mountain snow across all of California and into Arizona and New Mexico.

"While most of the rain and snow will fall at moderate rates with minimal impact, there will be heavier rain later Tuesday into Tuesday night which could cause some flooding in some of the hills surrounding Los Angeles," Rinde said.

According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel, "The storms during the second half of the week have the potential to unload 2-3 feet of snow on the mountains and ski resorts of Southern California."

In addition to wintry travel problems, enough rain will fall to raise the risk of sporadic urban flooding and a small number of mudslides, especially in burn scar areas from wildfires.

The mainstream media will tell you simplistically that this will not put an end to the California drought. While technically true, the string of storms will put a meaningful and welcome dent into the drought and take the edge off the crisis. And four or five weeks of this kind of weather, which has been known to happen when previous coastal droughts have broken, will in fact put an end to the drought. We have identified information sources. We will be watching and reporting because we are interested and hope that you will be too.

When It Rain It Pours

We are having an eighth straight day of rain here in Bozeman. While I doubt that is a record it is certainly the longest stretch of precipitation in the three years I've resided in the Treasure State. That, plus the eight days of snow we had in April, will go a long way towards making up for a below normal winter snowpack. 

Meanwhile, to the south, to say the rainfall in Texas and Oklahoma has been drought busting is to put it mildly. Portions of neighboring Colorado, Kansas, Arkansas and nearby Nebaraska have been inundated as well.

Here is the scoop on the record setting month as reported by the Weather Channel.

In Pursuit of May Rainfall Records 

From Colorado and Nebraska to Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas, several cities have already seen one of their wettest Mays on record. Here's a look at where things stand right now.

Amarillo, Texas – 9.26 inches of rain has fallen through May 27, making it the second-wettest May on record. The all-time record is 9.81 inches in May 1951.

Austin (Camp Mabry), Texas – Extremely heavy rainfall Monday dumped 5.20 inches of rain at Camp Mabry, lifting Austin to its wettest May on record. The rain tally is 16.72 inches of rain through May 27, making it by far the wettest May on record, topping the old record of 14.10 inches in May 1895. It's also the third wettest month on record. September 1921, with 20.78 inches, leads the pack for the city's wettest month.

Corpus Christi, Texas – Rainfall in May 2015 is 13.41 inches through May 27, which is well beyond the previous May record of 10.44 inches that was set in 1941. A total of 4.56 inches fell on Thursday to clinch the record. Amazingly, just nine days prior, exactly 4.56 inches of rain also fell in the city. May 12 and May 21 are now tied as the third-wettest May days in the city's weather records.

According to weather.com senior meteorologist Nick Wiltgen, May 2015 now exceeds Corpus Christi's total rainfall for the entire drought-parched year of 2011, which was only 12.06 inches.

Houston, Texas – 13.59 inches of rain has fallen through May 27 at Bush Intercontinental Airport on the city's north side, pushing it to fifth place among the city's wettest Mays. The record wet May there is 15.87 inches in 1907. 

Lubbock, Texas – 8.41 inches of rain has fallen through May 26, making it Lubbock's second-wettest May on record. The total would have to rise to 12.69 inches to claim the title for the wettest May. According to the National Weather Service, the last time it rained 8 inches or more in a month in Lubbock was September 2008 with 8.70 inches.

Wichita Falls, Texas – May 2015 became the wettest month on record in this northern Texas city early Friday afternoon, May 22, when the city's month-to-date total reached 13.33 inches as of 1:11 p.m. CDT. That broke the record for May and for any month on the calendar, both set in May 1982 with 13.22 inches. Through May 27, the May total has reached 14.53 inches.

According to the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma, May 2015's rainfall in Wichita Falls exceed that from the previous six Mays combined - 13.41 inches.

Oklahoma City – Oklahoma's capital reached a month-to-date total of 14.53 inches at 5:56 p.m. CDT Saturday, breaking its all-time May rainfall record of 14.52 inches in 2013. Only 21 minutes later, the city broke its June 1989 record of 14.66 inches to become the wettest month in Oklahoma City history. An extremely heavy downpour followed with more than 2 inches of rain.

Oklahoma City's new all-time record monthly rainfall total cracked the 19-inch mark Wednesday, reaching 19.12 inches through May 27. This is more than the average precipitation over a five-month period from March through July (18.68 inches).

Tulsa, Oklahoma – The city's May total is 12.09 inches through May 27, making it the second-wettest May on record. The record of 18.00 inches in May 1943 will be a tough one to beat.

Fort Smith, Arkansas – This western Arkansas city has now recorded its wettest month in history with 18.34 inches of rain through May 27. This broke the previous record of 15.02 inches in June 1945. Several days ago, Fort Smith surpassed its May record of 13.67 inches from 1943.

Wichita, Kansas – The largest city in Kansas topped the 10-inch mark Saturday thanks to heavy rainfall. Through May 27, the city's month-to-date total was 11.69 inches, making it the second-wettest May on record. The standing record for May is 13.14 inches in 2008.

Lincoln, Nebraska – 10.83 inches of rain has fallen through May 27, ranking as the wettest May in the Nebraska capital, topping the previous wettest May record of 10.72 inches set in 1903.

Valentine, Nebraska – 7.07 inches of rain has fallen through May 27, ranking as the third-wettest May. The current record wettest May of 8.96 inches was set in 1962.

Colorado Springs, Colorado – 7.66 inches of rain at Colorado Springs Municipal Airport through May 27 ranks as the second-wettest May on record. The wettest May was in 1935 when 8.10 inches was recorded. Interestingly, several co-operative and volunteer observation sites only a few miles west of the airport have picked up 10 to 12 inches of rain this month.

Of the first 27 days of May, 21 have had measurable precipitation (.01 inch or greater) at the Colorado Springs airport; that is an all-time record. Five other days have had a trace of precipitation, and only one has been completely dry.

Pueblo, Colorado – A total of 5.17 inches of rain has fallen through May 27, making it the second wettest May on record. The wettest May was in 1957 when 5.43 inches was measured.

Every day since May 5 – that's 23 straight days as of this writing – has brought at least 4 inches of rainfall to at least one location in the state of Texas, according to CoCoRaHS, the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network. At least 100 of the volunteer network's 1,699 reporting sites in Texas have recorded at least 10 inches of rain this month. The wettest of all has been Pottsboro, near Lake Texoma along the Oklahoma-Texas border with a total of 22.70 inches through May 27.

Oklahoma has also taken a drenching this month, with month-to-date totals topping 10 inches across much of the southern half of the state. One CoCoRaHS site northeast of Norman has reported 25.88 inches of rain since May 1.  

Among other states in the May rainy zone, top month-to-date totals by state include 19.75 inches near Uniontown in northwest Arkansas; 16.59 inches near Ruston in northern Louisiana; 13.73 inches in the Ivywild neighborhood of Colorado Springs, Colorado; 12.85 inches near Fairbury in southeast Nebraska; 14.33 inches southeast of Topeka, Kansas; and 12.87 inches in Plattsburgh, Missouri near Kansas City.

The totals are prodigious. They would make Noah and his two-by-two legions proud. Here is the full size Texas and Oklahoma 30-day precipitation map. 

Government Weather Data Are So Accurate

We have had drenching rains in the southwest Montana valleys the last day or so and much welcomed accretion to snow packs at elevation. Here is the southerly ridge view locally at Bridger Bowl this morning. 

I wanted to know just how much rainfall we have had so I looked to the National Weather Service report.

ASUS65 KTFX 171545
 RTPMT 
 MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR MONTANA...UPDATED
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
 945 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015
 
 ...FULL TIME STATIONS...
 HIGH TEMP YESTERDAY. 12 HOUR LOW TEMPERATURE...24 HOUR
 PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL...AND SNOW DEPTH AT 6 AM MDT.
 STATIONS ARE AUTOMATED AND MAY UNDERESTIMATE WINTER PRECIPITATION.
  
 .BR TFX 0517 M DH01/TAIRZX/DH06/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
 :                                       YDAY 12-HR 24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV            HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 BHK  : BAKER MUNI APT   2929 :           71 /  48 / 0.05 /      /    
 BIL  : BILLINGS LOGAN   3567 :           61 /  43 / 0.29 /      /   M
 BZN  : BOZEMAN YELL APT 4475 :           50 /  40 / 0.34 /      /   0
 BTM  : BUTTE MOONEY APT 5700 :           45 /  38 / 0.44 /      /
 CTB  : CUT BANK MUNI AP 3838 :           51 /  36 / 0.71 /      /   0
 DLN  : DILLON AIRPORT   5200 :           47 /  39 / 0.79 /      /   0
 GGW  : GLASGOW WOKAL AP 2285 :           51 /  45 / 0.60 /  0.0 /   0
 GDV  : GLENDIVE AIRPORT 2457 :           64 /  46 / 0.53 /      /    
 GTF  : GREAT FALLS APT  3664 :           47 /  41 / 1.25 /  0.0 /   0
 HVR  : HAVRE AIRPORT    2585 :           52 /  41 / 0.72 /  0.0 /   0
 HLN  : HELENA AIRPORT   3828 :           49 /  43 / 0.80 /  0.0 /   0
 JDN  : JORDAN AIRPORT   2662 :           55 /  46 / 0.63 /      /    
 GPI  : KALISPELL GLAC   1865 :           66 /  47 /    T /    M /   M
 LWT  : LEWISTOWN APT    4145 :           49 /  42 / 1.01 /      /   0
 LVM  : LIVINGSTON APT   4653 :           55 /  40 / 0.72 /  0.0 /   0
 MLS  : MILES CITY APT   2628 :           68 /  48 / 0.07 /      /
 MSO  : MISSOULA AIRPORT 3202 :           58 /  45 / 0.00 /  0.0 /   0
 SDY  : SIDNEY AIRPORT   1985 :           59 /  46 / 0.76 /      /    
 OLF  : WOLF POINT APT   1980 :           56 /  45 / 0.94 /      /  

According to the vaunted United States Weather Service the 24 hour rainfall through 0945 this morning at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport was 0.34 inches. Oh hell. During the time alone that we shivered through the lacrosse game last night we got that much rain. Anyone who has stuck their head outside during the last 24 hours knows that the Weather Service reading is aburd.

Then I looked at the rainfall reports for the amateur stations around town. 

 BOZEMAN AGRIMET               08 AM SUN     1.03    
   BOZEMAN WHEATLAND WU          12 AM SUN     0.17    
   BOZEMAN BAXTER MEADOWS WU     12 AM SUN     1.59    
   BOZEMAN S COTTONWOOD WU       12 AM SUN     0.13    
   BOZEMAN GAMTRELL 10ESE DNET   09 AM SUN     1.17    
   BOZEMAN TAYABOSHOCK 3SE DNET  09 AM SUN     0.95    
   BOZEMAN BRIDGER MOUNTAIN 6NE  09 AM SUN     0.96    
   BOZEMAN 1SSE MSU WU           08 AM SUN     1.36    
   BOZEMAN HYALIT 6SW WU         09 AM SUN     1.08    
   BOZEMAN TAYABESHOCKUP 3SE WU  09 AM SUN     1.02    
   BOZEMAN WHEATLAND WU          09 AM SUN     1.04    
   BZN SCOTTONWOOD WU            09 AM SUN     0.62    
   BOZEMAN WHEATLAND WU          09 AM SUN     1.04    
   BOZEMAN ROUSE WU              09 AM SUN     1.12    
   BOZEMAN BON TON WU            09 AM SUN     1.08    
   BOZEMAN FG WU                 09 AM SUN     0.83    
   BOZEMAN S BLACK 4.1WSW WU     09 AM SUN     0.87 

A couple of stations have readings that are obviously in error. But the Tayebeshockup station, which is a mile or so up the road from us, measured rainfall of 1.02 inches. Baxter Meadows which is out towards the airport, rings in at 1.59 inches. For our area, which averages about 16 inches of precipitation annually, those are very significant rain totals.

Here is what the Billings Gazette reported locally. 

Steady precipitation since Friday dropped over an inch of water on Billings and set a daily record for rainfall in Livingston.

The National Weather Service office in Billings logged a daily rainfall total of 1.32 inches in Livingston for Saturday, shattering the old record of .74 inches set on May 16, 1977, Meteorologist Brian Tesar said.

The precipitation from the three-day storm was heaviest in the Yellowstone Valley area.

“Generally, the heaviest rainfall fell from Livingston to Park City,” Tesar said

By Sunday afternoon, Friday’s storm had dropped 4 inches of rain in Reed Point and 3.1 inches near Greyclff..

In Billings, totals ranged from 1.13 to 1.74 inches. Big Timber received 2.68 inches of rain, 1.8 inches fell in Red Lodge and Ryegate got 1.73 inches.: http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/record-breaking-rain-in-livingston-saturday-clouds-to-break-on/article_61df8aa7-50dc-5d27-b6be-09eedb971d75.html#ixzz3aS7PqvU7

Let's hear it for NOAA. Welcome to systemic bias. The United States government is thy name.

Great Lakes Ice Coverage and Returning Winter

There won't be record ice coverage this year -- just more than twice normal.

Meanwhile we've had spring like weather much of this month in southwestern Montana. Despite above average temps there is plenty of snow in the ski areas (with little to no snowmaking) -- they are going strong. Here are a couple shots from Bridger Bowl today, post closing, a dozen miles from our home.

A bracing shot of winter weather is coming this weekend. Here is the forecast. 

The actual snowfall is usually multiples of what the NOAA scientists predict. Their models suck.

Locals have warned me that a mild February is a big head fake. When this weather pattern sets in it means feet of snow in April and May. The locals haven't been wrong yet. We will see. 

Great Lakes Ice Coverage Way Above Normal

Whether you read it in English or French the Great Lakes ice coverage has been way above average again this year. Five weeks prior to the normal seasonal peak coverage is already above the typical annual top. Must be global warming at work.

The temperature data are easy to phony up and fabricate, and indeed are. The ice data, not so much.

Great Lakes Ice Coverage Above Normal

We are not going to challenge records this year like we did last year, but season-to-date Great Lakes ice coverage is well above normal. Here is the latest graphic progress chart from the Canadian Ice Service.

The US Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System has some great graphics too. Here is Lake Erie, as of today, depicting 79.9 percent ice coverage.

Click this link to watch the ice coverage grow.

Really cool, and not something you will find reported in the media because it does not support the doomsday global warming theories that are favored by the smart people and all the scientists on the take.

Hope you all are having a great winter. Cheers!

2014 In Review

Courtesy of NOAA.

Post by NOAA Science On a Sphere.

How Many Points Does It Take?

Cliimate change ....  habitat destruction ... blah, blah, blah ...... global warming destroying the environment .... blah, blah, blah .... man caused .... blah, blah ..... wilderness protection needed ..... blah, blah, blah .... the earth is at a tipping point ..... blah, blah, blah ..... inconvenient truth ..... blah, blah ...... threatened with extinction .... blah, blah, blah .... urgent and personal for everyone on the planet ...... blah, blah ...  habitat destruction ..... blah, blah.... blah .... fundamental threat to places, species and communities .... blah, blah, blah.

Ma! Look at what I found down the road!

Bozeman Daily Chronicle, December 11, 2014

Ice Cover on the Great Lakes

On January 5th of this year, when the Great Lakes ice cover stood at just over 22.7 percent, we made an early call. "Epic freeze coming for the Great Lakes," we said, continuing, "Lake Erie, with its shallow waters, is virtually certain to freeze over this winter. Lake Michigan may be headed for 90 percent plus ice coverage."

We pretty much nailed it. For the winter season, the Great Lakes peaked at 92.2 percent ice coverage in early March, setting a record for that month and achieving the second highest coverage recorded for any date in the modern era of satellite observation. Lake Michigan's ice coverage peaked at 93.3 percent. Lake Erie got up to 96.4 percent. Gale force winds that broke up, pushed and stacked ice floes one on top of the other, were the only thing that stood between Great Lakes waters and record ice coverage in each of the lakes.

Around Buffalo, people are
opening garages to this!

We frequently small talk about the weather, because it is a relevant and (at least formerly) a noncontroversial topic. So we engaged in discussion at the swim center earlier this week with a gentleman originally from Buffalo, New York, about the six, seven and eight feet of lake effect snow the locals in various locations around the eastern city are being buried by this week. Later on in the winter, the ice coverage on Lake Erie will moderate the lake effect, which is why snowfall in Buffalo usually peaks early in the season. 

This got me thinking about this year's Great Lakes ice coverage

More Evidence of Climate Change

We have been told repeatedly by luminaries such as Al Franken (D - Minn.), Dick Durbin (D - Ill.), Carl Levin (D - Mich.), and Al Gore (D - Hollywood) that climate change causes Great Lakes water levels to fall. Looks like they didn't get that memo along Lake Shore Drive in Chicago.

Post by ABC 7 Chicago.

More Climate Change Impacts

Yes, it is happening -- a road salt shortage.

The rewards for surviving last winter's punishing weather are tight supplies and drastic price increases for road salt across much of the U.S.

Local officials in several Midwestern states are facing prices that are twice what they were last season. In some cases, the price is five times as much. And that's only if they can get road salt.

Replenishing stockpiles is proving to be a challenge nationwide after so much salt was used last winter, when supplies were diminished by frigid weather and record snowfall.

Read more: http://www.woodradio.com/articles/wood-news-125494/are-we-in-for-a-road-12811732#ixzz3EqNh6x8t

The shortage is vexing city officials even in Brainerd, Minnesota, which back in the day when global cooling theories were in vogue, didn't have enough snow to support the shooting of Fargo, the movie.

Brainerd drivers may be on a reduced sodium diet this winter.

There's a shortage of road salt, and it has city leaders looking into ways to extend the life of the supply, as well as searching for other suppliers.

The city was granted half its normal ration of salt - 125 tons, compared to the usual 250 tons - for the impending winter from its supplier because of the shortage.

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This may be a scarce sight this winter due
 to a pervasive road salt shortage

Brainerd city leaders have turned to other salt suppliers, in hopes to find at least some of the 125 tons of needed salt.
"There aren't many. There's only two or three major suppliers," Hulsether said.

One of those suppliers has already said no, citing a shortage of salt and the city not being a current customer, he said.

As further evidence that global warming is causing a rash of dangerously extreme weather events, the United States tornado count through September is bouncing along the record low, achieved all of a year ago.

Global warming or climate change, whatever you call it, the movement foists fabricated threats -- it is a fraud America funded and supported by the highest levels of government. Good luck to all.