Thursday, March 6, 2014

Sometimes We Gloat

On January 5, we posted Epic Freeze for the Great Lakes Coming: Water Levels Already Back to Normal, looking ahead to what was to come. Among other things, we prognosticated that Lake Michigan was "headed for 90 percent plus ice coverage."
Great Lakes ice concentration 3.4.2014
At the time, Lake Michigan's surface was covered 18 percent by ice. The Great Lakes as a whole had an ice cover of 23 percent. Now the latest daily readings are Lake Michigan is 93 percent ice covered, and 92 percent of the entire Great Lakes system is under ice (see table below). 

The Lake Michigan seasonal high ice mark matches the record of 93 percent coverage set in 1977. The Great Lakes aggregate is second only to the 1979 record of 95 percent. In late February, gale force winds churned and broke up ice packs and stacked surface ice against lake shores and floes on top of one another.  The winds pushed Great Lakes ice coverage down from 85 percent on February 18 to 62 percent on February 23 (see table below). If it had not been for that interruption, this season's ice coverage likely would have smashed previous records. Lake Michigan could have totally frozen over. As is, we are number two.

In the single variable world of the global warming alarmists, we were warned prior to 2013. Great Lakes water levels were receding due to years of lower than normal ice coverage.  It was said by such luminaries as Al Franken (D Minn.) that global warming was causing water levels to decrease.  Open winter waters increased surface evaporation. Al said give me money to address the climate change scourge -- big money.

Lake Michigan ice concentration 3.5.2014
Obamanistas warned of near term water level declines of between two and four feet. There would be areas along Lake Michigan where enough new shoreline would be exposed to open up the Midwest's version of a Daytona Beach speedway. Ecological and commercial (due to fishing and shipping impacts) Armageddon was in the offing. Except, Great Lakes water levels recovered to near normal late last year, before there was hardly a lick of ice cover on the Great Lakes.   

This winter exposes the Great Lakes water level scare tactic for the fear mongering political statement that it was.

Now we are warned of severe flooding. From Bill's WOOD TV Blog, here is the scoop on national snowcover and massive seasonal snowfall totals in lower Michigan. 
 The map/graphic on the right is snow cover across the U.S.  On Tuesday 53.9% of the U.S. had a snow cover.  That’s the highest total this late in winter since 1978.   The average depth in the snow covered area is 6.8″.  That’s a lot of snow and a lot of potential for spring flooding. 
Season snowfall:  Holland 148.8″, Muskegon 129.4″, Grand Rapids 110.7″, Kalamazoo 104.6″
Snow packs are deep around four of the five Great Lakes this year. Lake effect snowfalls, one after another, were caused by interaction of frigid winter air masses with the lakes.  
Meanwhile, the towering snowpack rimming the watershed will melt this spring and much of the water will flow into the lakes or the streams that feed them. The runoff is expected to be so bountiful that some areas will be in danger of flooding, a prospect that could be worsened by ice jams on swollen rivers. 
"Any additional rainfall on top of that snowpack would add to that flood threat," said Keith Kompoltowicz, hydrology branch chief with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers district office in Detroit. "We're certainly paying very close attention to the weather in the next few weeks."
Look out for the floods -- we can't wait to capture the first opportunistic politician, climatology nut, United States President or mainstream media propagandist who correlates the upcoming floods to global warming, aka, climate change. They miss few opportunities. We will let you know about their new fantasies as soon as we see them published.

Note: 3/7/2014, the coverage is a March record.

Note: 3/11/2014, two days after this post Lake Michigan officially set the new record.
Lake Michigan Ice Cover Reaches Record Coverage!
This last stretch of cold weather during late February into the first week of March caused ice concentration on Lake Michigan to rapidly increase. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in Ann Arbor Michigan measures the ice concentration on the Great Lakes daily.  On March 8th, the ice concentration on Lake Michigan was measured at 93.29%.  This sets a new record ice coveron Lake Michigan.  The previous record was 93.1% set in 1977.   The period of record dates back to 1973. 



  1. To what degree of certainty are you sure that global warming is not currently a fact?

    1. Let’s put it this way, there are two huge sources of misinformation on global warming – first outlandish extrapolations like drought (Barack Obama), super storms and flooding (Barack Obama), disappearing ice cap (Al Gore), hurricanes (Al Gore), tornadoes (Al Gore) and lake level changes (Al Franken) and second data bias, manipulation and backing into statistical models. Each exaggerates perceived risk by an order of magnitude which means the actual global warming risk is a very small fraction of what is conventionally claimed.

  2. Urban heating islands have been getting continuously warmer since, well, urbanization began, since urbanization has continuously grown. That will continue to happen regardless of whether people drive cars or ride streetcars. The places where temperatures have been continuously measured are overwhelmingly urban areas that comprise a tiny portion of the planet. Lake Michigan hit a walk off home run its last at bat.