Tuesday, January 5, 2016

And Then The Rains Came

The rains are coming in a deluge to California this week. Here is a screenshot of the Doppler radar effective 5:00 am PST today.

Doppler radar, 1/1/2016, 5:00 PST. Source: Weather.com.

Wave after wave of moisture is headed in off the Pacific Ocean. 

The National Weather Service issued this statement for the Sacramento area.

  • Issued by The National Weather Service

    Sacramento, CA

    3:37pm PST, Mon Jan 4
  • ... UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK...
    .IMPACTS... *SLICK ROADS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW.
    *TRAVEL DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500 FEET.
    THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
    *POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR DEBRIS FLOWS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
    .FORECAST CONFIDENCE... *HIGH FOR UNSETTLED PATTERN.
    *MEDIUM FOR EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF EACH SYSTEM.
    *MEDIUM FOR LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
    .TIMING AND STRENGTH... *TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY *A STRONGER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IMPACTING TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. *HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM 4500 FEET AND ABOVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
    *WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY *LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 3500 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. *AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
    *FRIDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK FROM WET WEATHER.
    *WET WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
    .WEATHER SUMMARY... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL STORMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FIRST WAVE BROUGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN TONIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN TO THE VALLEY.
    A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLDER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. VALLEY RAIN MAY IMPACT COMMUTE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
    FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH.
Here is what Accuweather.com is reporting.

Train of storms to drench California, southwestern US as El Nino drives the pattern

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
January 5, 2016; 7:17 AM ET
A series of storms will bring welcome rainfall across California and other portions of the southwestern United States this week.
The track of these storms is fueled by El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
"The above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, tends to strengthen the storm track into the West Coast and occasionally California during the winter," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
Train of Storms in the West
While a parade of storms slammed into the northwestern United States during November and December, the southwestern U.S. will receive days of precipitation this week.
"The pattern in the West will remain quite active through the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde said.
While rainfall will be measured in inches from California and into parts of Arizona, these storms will not erase the drought across the Southwest.
Snow will fall across the mountains which will be beneficial for filling lakes and rivers during the spring and summer months. Snowfall will be measured in feet across the Sierra Nevada. Snow this week could cause travel problems near Donner Pass.
The next few storms to roll ashore will be from Wednesday into Friday and will be progressively stronger and bring heavier rainfall and mountain snow across all of California and into Arizona and New Mexico.
"While most of the rain and snow will fall at moderate rates with minimal impact, there will be heavier rain later Tuesday into Tuesday night which could cause some flooding in some of the hills surrounding Los Angeles," Rinde said.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel, "The storms during the second half of the week have the potential to unload 2-3 feet of snow on the mountains and ski resorts of Southern California."
In addition to wintry travel problems, enough rain will fall to raise the risk of sporadic urban flooding and a small number of mudslides, especially in burn scar areas from wildfires.

The mainstream media will tell you simplistically that this will not put an end to the California drought. While technically true, the string of storms will put a meaningful and welcome dent into the drought and take the edge off the crisis. And four or five weeks of this kind of weather, which has been known to happen when previous coastal droughts have broken, will in fact put an end to the drought. We have identified information sources. We will be watching and reporting because we are interested and hope that you will be too.


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