Monday, August 4, 2014

August 4: The Peaceful Hurricane Season Cometh

Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions are classifications that cover a extremely broad range of storm actvity both across classification and within class.  Hurricanes generate sustained winds of 75 miles per hour, up to 150 miles per hour or more. Tropical storm force winds range from 35 to 74 miles per hour. Tropical depressions are less. The force and destructive potential of storm systems depends, of course, not only on wind speeds, but on how long storms last.

Accordingly, a measure that calculates storm strength both on the basis of wind speed and storm life has been developed. It is called accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).  

What is Accumulated Cyclone Energy?
Accumulated cyclone energy, or "ACE," is used to express the activity and destructive potential of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons. ACE is calculated as the square of the wind speed every 6 hours, and is then scaled by a factor of 10,000 for usability. 
The damage potential of a hurricane is proportional to the square or cube of the maximum wind speed, and thus ACE is not only a measure of tropical cyclone activity, but a measure of the damage potential of an individual cyclone or a season.

We blogged on ACE in December of last year.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, the seasonal total stands at 31.1 (the units are 10,000 knots squared if anyone is curious), the lowest seasonal total since 1983… and that’s just 30% of average.  Looking back to 1950, only four other years come in with lower ACE totals: 1983, 1982, 1977, and 1972.
This year we are number one on the inverted scale. Year to date (through August 4) the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season has the lowest storm strengths of any season in the last 45 years.  

Source Weather Underground, August 14, 2014

Year to date ACE is 10 versus an average of 110. We are at less than 10 percent of average and will remain at historically low levels even with Bertha strengthening as we write into a minimal hurricane.

Earlier this year, Dear President (known to many as Barack Obama) used his usual lie mongering and scare tactics, and wielded his pen to push for more power and control and to reach into the economy to extract additional resources to lavish favors on his friends and supporters.

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As the climate continues to warm, hurricane intensity and rainfall are projected to increase, and we expect sea level rise to make storm surges more costly. That is why, last year, I issued an Executive Order directing the Federal Government to take coordinated action to prepare our Nation for the impacts of climate change. In the years ahead we will remain committed to increasing resilience, investing in scientific research, and cutting red tape so we can quickly send assistance where it is needed most.
Pay no attention. Move on. Good luck to all.  

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